China's 2022 growth seen as its lowest in 4 decades

China's economic growth for 2022 is expected to have been among its weakest in 40 years after the twin crises of the Covid-19 pandemic and property woes, analysts said ahead of Tuesday's GDP announcement.

Ten experts interviewed by AFP forecast an average 2.7 per cent year-on-year (y-o-y) rise in gross domestic product (GDP) for the world's second-largest economy, a sharp plunge from China's 2021 growth of more than 8 per cent.

It could also be China's slowest pace since a 1.6 per cent contraction in 1976 — the year Mao Zedong died — and excluding 2020, after the COVID-19 virus emerged in Wuhan in late 2019.

Beijing had set itself a growth target of around 5.5 per cent for last year but this was undermined by the government's "zero-COVID" policy, which put the brakes on manufacturing activity and consumption.

Strict lockdowns, quarantines and compulsory mass testing prompted abrupt closures of manufacturing facilities and businesses in major hubs — like Zhengzhou, home of the world's biggest iPhone factory — and sent reverberations across the global supply chain.

The number 1 economy of Asia is battling a surge in COVID cases that has overwhelmed its hospitals and medical staff.

This is likely to reflect in 2022's fourth-quarter growth, which will also be announced on Tuesday alongside a series of other indicators such as retail, industrial production and employment.

China's exports took their biggest plunge since the start of the pandemic in December, contracting 9.9 per cent y-o-y, while consumption was in the red in November and investment has slowed.