An analysis into current India's policy towards Bangladesh

On the First of February, 2025 the Union Minister of Finance and Corporate  Affairs of India Smt. Nirmala Sitharaman presented the Union budget  2025-26 in the Parliament where 120 crore rupees has been allotted to Bangladesh as foreign aid which remains the same as the previous budget of India. Despite decreasing the number of amount of External ministries, India persists with the same amount for the new Bangladesh which certainly carried a lot of significance. To implement the "Neighborhood First Policy", India is keen to build their regional big brother attitude among all their neighbors. Foreign aid is the key factor to sustain the relationships among the neighbors which India has done well throughout the years. 

Recently, the bilateral relations between Bangladesh and India have gotten worse throughout every aspect, especially after the fall of the Sheikh Hasina regime in Bangladesh. The cooperation between the present Interim Government of Bangladesh and the Narendra Modi Government of India is not as smooth as before. Border disputes, diplomatic failure, Communal disharmony, and political unrest triggered the relations into a hole. 

The authority of India had posed allegations against the interim government of Bangladesh many times since the Sheikh Hasina regime was ousted, so in response, the Interim government gave a bold statement also. Amidst serious political upfront, India allotted the same amount of foreign aid to Bangladesh which is wondering for Bangladesh.

Now a pivotal question arises, why doesn't India deduct foreign aid from Bangladesh? It may seem that India doesn't need to care about Bangladesh anymore. In reality, Bangladesh is undoubtedly the most important neighbor to India. There are multiple concerns regarding that importance. 

Likewise, in recent days an anti-Indian sentiment sparked in Bangladesh after the downfall of the Sheikh Hasina regime which is not ideal for India to digest. In terms of trading, Bangladesh is the largest export destination for India in South Asia. From 2014-24, India's total exports to Bangladesh increased by about 95%. In terms of Energy, Bangladesh is the key importer of India where Indian Oil Corporation, Numaligarh Refinery Limited, Adani Group, and Petro Net LNG Limited are collaborating with Bangladeshi groups in the vast energy sector in Bangladesh.

Regarding Tourism, Bangladesh is the largest source of the Indian tourism sector. In terms of Remittance, Bangladesh is the fifth largest destination for Indian migrant workers from where they get 10 billion USD in remittance per year. In terms of Security Cooperation, India is highly dependable on Bangladesh to ensure Seven Sister's security and in this regard, Dhaka has a greater stance to bargain with India. Regarding Connectivity, India is privileged to use Mongla and Chittagong seaports to reach Kolkata to Agartala which curtails the distance from 1650 kilometers to 550 kilometers saving not only time but also wages for India. This facility of getting transit is much needed for India to ensure economic development and security maximization in their Northeast province. 

Being a part of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD) and Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) India is always keen to have Bangladesh in their favor, as Bangladesh is positioned on top of the Bay of Bengal as well as a key part of the Indian Ocean. Again, the intimacy of Bangladesh with China is also always a headache for India. Whether economically or Geopolitically Bangladesh has a paramount importance to India.Regarding this fact, It is certain that India pursues the importance of melting good relations with Bangladesh. Being urgent of their interest India takes the carrot and the stick policy to deal with Bangladesh. 

The carrot and stick policy means to use both rewards and punishment to motivate someone or something. In politics, it offers foreign aid in exchange for cooperation and threatens military action if cooperation isn't forthcoming. In the case of Bangladesh, India implements this policy very smartly. In the last six months, India interfered in Bangladesh's internal issues openly, sometimes through sentimental statements and sometimes through closing important land ports like Benapole-Hili. 

Again the uprising of Hindutva organizations of India deteriorated long-lasting relations through attacks on the Agartala Deputy High Commission and Kolkata Deputy High Commission of Bangladesh respectively. The Government of India didn't take any strong initiatives rather provoking the situation. Even several political leaders of India threatened Bangladesh boldly.  The intense border disputes are electrifying as the Indian Border Security Force (BSF) follows the ideology "Shoot to Kill" policy. Apart from all of these, Indian media deliberately circulated fake news about communal disharmony in Bangladesh incessantly.

Moreover, India persists in domination from every aspect to keep pressure on Bangladesh along with providing foreign aid to keep the relations normal. It clarified the intention of India that they would never think to lose their long-lasting trusted partners. Despite a low chance of melting the relations normalize within a short time, but the way India plays the card of the carrot and the stick policy, that will not fail at all.

Source: Daily Observer.