Failure to reach Teesta water sharing deal embitters Dhaka-Delhi ties 

At present, 11 districts in Bangladesh are grappling with a dire situation of severe flooding. This crisis has not only affected over 5 million people but also forced more than 1 million to flee their homes. The floods have wreaked havoc on crops, cattle, and fisheries, causing losses estimated to be in the hundreds of crores of taka. As governments and various organizations rush to provide relief, food supplies, medical care, and temporary shelters, the urgency of the situation cannot be overstated.

Due to recent floods in Bangladesh, the necessity of India-Bangladesh cooperation, particularly in water management, has been highlighted. Although Bangladesh has received some aid from India during natural calamities, the present flood scenario has rekindled discussions about the long-standing Teesta water-sharing arrangement between the two countries.

The Teesta River is vital for both countries, particularly during flooding and drought. Since seasonal floods make an organized approach to water management even more essential, Bangladesh has been pushing for a fair share of the Teesta waters. In areas like West Bengal, which also depends on the Teesta, India still needs to figure out how to strike a balance with its regional water needs.

Amidst the aftermath of the recent floods, there is a silver lining. The pressure on both parties to finalize the Teesta Treaty has intensified, potentially paving the way for enhanced cooperation in disaster response and flood management.Despite the significant influence of internal political variables on the pace and success of such conversations, the prospect of both nations continuing dialogue focusing on the mutual benefits of addressing these issues is a beacon of hope.

Negotiations regarding the Teesta Treaty with India have been ongoing for years and have not been definitively agreed upon. The Teesta River is a critical water source for northern Bangladesh, and the recent floods have underscored the importance of water-sharing agreements. However, the treaty's future is still being determined due to the political complexities and historical delays. Continued dialogue between Bangladesh and India is necessary to address these water management challenges,particularly in the context of climate-related effects such as flooding. 

The failure of diplomacy between India and Bangladesh regarding the Teesta water-sharing agreement could result in a variety of repercussions, including a potential impact on water security, agricultural productivity, and regional relations:  

The strain on Bilateral Relations: The otherwise robust India-Bangladesh relationship could be strained if the Teesta issue is not resolved, resulting in tensions in other areas such as trade, security, and cross-border cooperation. While both countries enjoy close ties, unresolved water disputes could impede future diplomatic and economic collaborations, raising concerns about the broader implications of a failed Teesta Treaty.

Agricultural and Economic Impact in Bangladesh: The Teesta River is a critical source of irrigation for Bangladesh, particularly in the northern regions, where farmers depend on it to cultivate rice and other crops. In the absence of an equitable water-sharing agreement, Bangladesh could face significant water shortages during the dry season, which would have a detrimental effect on the agricultural sector and rural livelihoods, leading to an increase in food insecurity and economic duress. 

Regional Political Tensions: In South Asia, water-sharing disputes are sensitive issues. If the Teesta Treaty remains unresolved, it may exacerbate political tensions, particularly within West Bengal (India), which also relies on the Teesta waters. Negotiations could be complicated by domestic politics in both countries, particularly if local leaders prioritize regional interests over national or bilateral cooperation. 

Flood Management Challenges: The absence of coordinated water management may intensify flooding issues, like the recent catastrophic floods in Bangladesh. Moreover, inadequate coordination on river flow control may result in both nations facing more frequent and severe flooding, exacerbating resource pressure and heightening the humanitarian impact.

Rise of Anti-Indian Sentiment in Bangladesh: A prolonged delay or outright failure of the water-sharing deal may exacerbate anti-Indian sentiment in Bangladesh. Certain factions may interpret India's reluctance as disregarding Bangladesh's requirements, potentially fueling political discontent and nationalist movements within the country.

Geopolitical Shifts: In response to a protracted diplomatic failure, Bangladesh may pursue more intensive relationships with other regional actors, like China, which has expressed interest in providing infrastructure support and investment. This shift in alliances could impact the regional balance of power and India's influence in South Asia.

Despite these challenges, India and Bangladesh have maintained robust bilateral relations, characterized by collaboration in various sectors, such as trade, security, and cultural exchange. Therefore, India will likely propose a more effective policy solution for both countries in the context of the Teesta issue. Otherwise, an unresolved Teesta water-sharing agreement could exacerbate public frustration and impair diplomatic relations. Negotiating a fair and mutually respectful treaty that includes provisions for coordinated actions during flood events could prevent such issues and preserve regional stability. 

The writer is Lecturer, Department of Public Administration, University of Dhaka

Source: Daily Observer