US inflation jumps to 2.6%, as the Fed's victory remains incomplete

The Consumer Price Index (CPI), released on Wednesday, climbed 2.6% from a year earlier, higher than September’s 2.4%. And after food and fuel prices were stripped out to give a better sense of the underlying inflation trend, “core” inflation held steady at 3.3%.

On a monthly basis, both the overall and core price measures climbed at a moderate pace, one that matched the increase from August to September. The inflation figures were all in line with economists’ expectations.

Still, for the Federal Reserve, the report serves as a reminder that inflation has cooled significantly from its 9.1% peak in 2022, but is not yet completely stamped out. 

Investors expect central bankers to lower interest rates for a third and final time this year at their meeting in mid-December, but a move is not guaranteed as officials keep a wary eye on incoming economic data.

“It could have been better, it could have been worse,” Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist at J.P. Morgan, said of the fresh inflation report. The expected rate cut in December is “probably a go, with the caveat that we need to see November jobs and, to a lesser extent, November C.P.I.”

For consumers, Wednesday’s inflation report is a reminder that prices on a variety of goods and services — such as restaurant meals and rent — have been climbing much more slowly.

But prices are still rising, even if less drastically, and price levels are much higher than they were just a few years ago. That has left many consumers feeling that they are still struggling to catch up.

Dismay about inflation was obvious at the polls last week, as voters ousted Democrats and elected Donald J. Trump to the White House. Both surveys and exit polls showed that the economy and inflation were major concerns for Americans as they headed into the election.

But progress on inflation — even if it is taking time — is ongoing.

Economists on Wall Street and at the Fed have been expecting inflation to continue to cool back to normal levels over the coming months and years. That is why Fed officials have been cutting interest rates, which they had lifted sharply in 2022 and 2023 in a bid to slow the economy and wrestle price increases under control.

But fully taming inflation was always likely to be a bumpy process, as Wednesday’s inflation report underscored.

“We’re sort of moving sideways,” said Omair Sharif, founder of Inflation Insights, noting that the latest data would probably keep Fed officials watchful.

He pointed out that while inflation was in line with what forecasters had expected, that was in part because apparel prices dropped sharply — which was likely a one-off. Services cost increases looked stickier, and they tend to be slower to change.

Given that, the Fed is likely to remain watchful as it moves toward its final meeting of the year and then into 2025. Central bank officials are expected to lower borrowing costs by a quarter point in December, from their current range of 4.5 to 4.75%, but officials have been clear that a move is not guaranteed.

“Really the question is — is December,” Jerome H. Powell, the Fed chair, said at a news conference last week. “By December, we’ll have more data.”

Mr. Sharif said officials were likely to keep a close eye on their preferred inflation measure, the Personal Consumption Expenditures gauge set for release on Nov. 27, as they figured out what to do next.

“I don’t think today takes December off the table,” he said of Wednesday’s report. But, he added, “I don’t think we’re quite out of the woods yet.”

And in the longer run, Mr. Trump’s victory could shake up the economic outlook, the path for inflation and, consequently, the future of interest rate policy.

Fed officials have been clear that it is too soon to predict what Mr. Trump’s agenda might mean for the economy. But many analysts have warned that some of his promises, including much higher tariffs, could fuel at least some further inflation.

The president-elect himself has pledged to kill inflation, which he calls a “country buster,” but analysts have been skeptical.

As the incoming administration’s plans come more clearly into view, the Fed might eventually need to take them into account.

“There’s nothing to model right now,” Mr. Powell said last week. “It’s such an early stage.”